Lessons Learned from the Loss in Wyoming

San Diego State University Men’s Basketball Team suffered it’s first conference loss, 2nd overall, to the Cowboys in Wyoming this past Tuesday. The Aztecs looked very sluggish at times and gave up uncharacteristic dunks and easy buckets throughout the game. Wyoming’s offense also managed to cool star player Xavier Thames with their zone scheme. With the Airforce game today, here is what SDSU’s first MWC loss means…

Live and Die By Xavier Thames…

San Diego State’s star player is by far senior point guard Xavier Thames. He averages over 18 points per game, and even more impressive, he has averaged close to 21 points per game in conference play. Tuesday night, Xavier was held without a field goal through the first half and went 3/16 overall. He scored 13 points, which was his lowest in 12 games. In games at Boise State and at Utah, where San Diego was down in the late minutes, Xavier came through in the clutch. Against Boise State, SDSU was down 14 points and he led the initial comeback run with 9 straight points . Thames also had the final assist to Dwayne Polee for the game-winning three. Maybe it was the overall play of Wyoming and the Aztec defense, but Xavier finally failed to come through in the clutch on Tuesday night.

…He Can’t Do it All

Something positive from Xavier’s off night was the play of his fellow Aztec starters. Five Aztecs, including Thames, scored in double-digits. Winston Shepard had 11 points, Josh Davis and J.J. O’Brien both had 10 points, and Dwayne Polee had a team-high 15 points off the bench. Even with the loss, this production is something to be happy about. San Diego State is much deeper this year than it has been in recent years. Say goodbye to only Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley scoring points.

SDSU has a lot of players this year that can score all with their different styles. Despite the knee injury, Josh Davis has managed to be very aggressive in the paint with both scoring and rebounds. J.J. O’Brien has been banging down low as well, but also has good ball handling skills, has a nice spin move, and can hit shallow shots. Winston Shepard has tremendous potential and is currently the Aztecs second leading scorer. He needs to continue to develop and learn to finish at the basket. His mid-range shot is very pretty though. If SDSU wants to be a serious contender in the NCAA Tournament, they will need to continue to have production out of everyone.

Dwayne Polee is Gaining Confidence

Last year Dwayne Polee was named the Pre-Season favorite for Mountain West Conference Newcomer of the Year Award. So much for that. Polee rarely got playing time last year. This year Steve Fisher is giving him the ball more and Polee is taking advantage of the opportunity by making plays.

Dwayne Polee is very lengthy, athletic, and plays terrific defense, a prototypical Steve Fisher player. Polee causes a lot of turnovers and generates points for this Aztec offense. He has been much needed firepower off the bench, and  is continuing to develop and make big shots. Most importantly, Thames and the rest of the team trust him. He will be a good addition to the starting lineup in 2014-15.

SDSU Probably Won’t Be a #1 Seed in the NCAA Tournament

There has been much talk about the top 4 seeds in the tournament this year. Although SDSU sat ranked #5 before the Wyoming loss, they still had potential to be a #1 seed with only the one loss. The loss in Wyoming pretty much seals SDSU’s fate. Or does it?

There is still a lot of basketball to be played. Arizona already lost again last night and Syracuse had a scare earlier this week. Wichita State’s schedule is ridiculously easy (they haven’t played a ranked opponent all season), but without a loss they should expect to hold onto a #1 seed. #3 Florida also plays #14 Kentucky this week and could easily lose that game as well.

First and foremost, the Aztecs need to keep on winning. They still have two games against New Mexico who was ranked earlier in the season and are currently projected to be a lock for the NCAA Tournament. There is the possibility they will have to play New Mexico a third time in the MWC Tournament, as well as playing Boise State and Wyoming again — who both gave the Aztecs troubles. On a majority of websites, SDSU sits at a #2 seed, with a few saying a #3 seed. Steve Fisher and company needs to make sure he keeps his players focused and try to run the table in the MWC.

Don’t Play Down to Your Opponent

San Diego State has a phenomenal defense which is nationally ranked. Often times this season we have seen the Aztecs play down to their opponents. It as if they aren’t playing with as much energy or urgency. Perhaps it is because they assume they are just going to win the game anyways. Well that mentality finally caught up to SDSU in Wyoming.

It seemed as if the Aztecs had control for the first quarter of the game. It also seemed as if they could run away with the game after taking a little lead. Then they allowed the Cowboys get back into it. They got slow and lazy on defense and gave up a lot of points they should not have. After Wyoming tied the game at 22-22 with 4:23 to go in the first half, the Cowboys did not look back. SDSU trailed by 9 at the half and never took the lead again. The Aztecs need to take a deep breath and come to play every game to win.

SDSU Falls to Wyoming, So Might Their Ranking

San Diego State looked to have a repeat of the 14-pt come from behind win in Boise State when they went down by 16 to the Cowboys in Wyoming.

This game was a little different. The Aztecs looked very slow on defense and were just not getting back to the ball. They were getting sliced through and Wyoming was converting open look dunks back-to-back. Maybe the Aztecs were winded — being over 7,000 feet above sea level after being at the marker in San Diego. SDSU held a lead through the opening portion of the first half, but then fell apart. It looked as if they were playing lazy, assuming they were going to be right back in it. Before we knew it, the Aztecs saw themselves down 9 at halftime.

Wyoming also played terrific defense. They played this zone scheme which truly worked against the Aztecs. San Diego State’s true strength is on defense, and their offense looked easily tolerable with the way the Cowboys were playing defense. Perhaps the key to the game was Xavier Thames. SDSU has relied heavily on Thames this season, and he has delivered.

It was a little different in Wyoming. Thames was hitting his free throws early but was not finishing and could not shoot. Thames went into the half with zero converted field goals and finished the game 3/16 with 13 points. This was Thame’s lowest point total since SDSU routed upstart St. Katherine 118-35 when he scored 10 points and did not play the majority of the game. That was a span of 12 games in which Xavier averaged over 20 points.

SDSU managed to climb back into the game, getting within 4 points with less than a minute to go. Another heads up play by Wyoming put them back up by 6 almost immediately and pretty much secured the game. The Aztecs could just not seem to put a full run together without letting Wyoming continue to get on the score board. 

Hopefully SDSU learns from this and comes to play for all their opponents. This is a late season game here in Mid-February, so I do not think we should be too down on this as fans. SDSU will probably drop out of the Top-5, but still should get a 2-3 seed in the tournament. They need to focus on the rest of the season as they still have two games verse New Mexico and have to play the MWC Tournament.

SDSU Gets Gritty Comeback Win at Boise St.

Down 64-65 with less than 20 seconds to go, one basket separated the Aztecs from a comeback victory. Xavier Thames drove to the basket taking on multiple defenders, dishing the ball to Dwayne Polee for the beautiful game-winning 3-point shot. Boise State’s Derrick Marks still had a chance as he air balled a three with two Aztecs in his face as time expired. This final segment does not even tell the whole story.

Going into the game, most knew that these two teams matchup well against each other. Over the last few years, it seems as if every Aztec/Bronco game has come down to the last play. Boise State is excellent on the perimeter with an outstanding 3-point game. SDSU has the best Opponent FG% in the country, and excels in the 3-point version of the category as well. SDSU also get tons of boards, currently ranked 16 in the country. Boise St. is third in the MWC in rebounds per game.

The 3-point scoring would tell the tail of the first half for the Boise State Broncos. They were excellent and every shot just seemed to go in. SDSU was not playing poor defense necessarily, Boise St. was just on fire. At one point Boise St. was 5/8 from 3 point range in the first half and SDSU had only shot 3 from the arc.

San Diego State went down big early 17-7. They got within two on a few occasions (24-26, 26-28), but just could not seem to cool down Boise’s shooting. The Aztecs also made a lot of poor decisions, allowing a total of 15 turnovers, 9 in the first half. This led to possessions for the Broncos who were also capitalizing on second chance points. SDSU went into the half trailing 33-42.

Josh Davis, who did not play Saturday against Colorado State, was playing with a knee brace. He was visually limited, as you can see him grimace at times. Davis bruised his knee bone in practice last week. Although the country’s 3rd leading rebounder was injured, he still brought his offensive game and made the most of his opportunity. He only managed to carral a conference play-low of 5 rebounds, but turned all of his 3 offensive boards into points. Davis played very aggressive in the paint was was dominating inside. He went 5-7 from the field for 10 points.

The Aztecs continued to struggle for the first part of the 2nd Half. Boise State was dominating going up 13 a few different occasions. With 13:37 left, SDSU was down 43-57, Boise State’s biggest lead of the game at 14. By the 11:48 mark the Broncos still had a convincing 13 point lead, besting the Aztecs 46-59. Then the comeback began.

The Aztecs notched up their defense. You could just feel the energy of SDSU’s swarming defense causing turnovers and shutting down the Boise State offense. The fans at the Taco Bell Arena were going nuts the entire game. You knew that all they wanted to do was rush the court with a victory over a #5 team. As mentioned in a previous article, the Aztec program has a bullseye on it’s back and every team in the MWC is going to give them their best game.

The Aztecs got a few turnovers which led to some points. Xavier Thames at one point had 9 straight points. Before you knew it, SDSU had gone on a 15-0 run and led the Broncos 61-59. The defense is obviously what made this happen. Boise State only managed only 23 points in the second half after scoring 42 in the first. Aztecs were consistent scoring 33 and 34 in the first and second halves, respectively.

Thames really is making a strong argument for Player of the Year with these performances. He pretty much carried the Aztecs offense on his back scoring 23 points (15 in the 2nd half) on 5/7 shooting (3/4 from 3-pt) and 10-11 from the free throw line. His one miss was somewhat crucial as it would have put the Aztecs up 63-61 (instead they were up 62-61). Mikey Thompson would go on to convert a layup which put the Broncos up 62-63.

The Aztecs did not convert on their possession then found themselves down 62-65 after a Derrick Mark’s jumper. SDSU failed again to convert, as they could not finish at the basket with less than a minute to go.

The next 2 series is what changed the game. As Marks was bringing up the ball Xavier Thames had him alone and got a steal. Thames was fouled on a layup, which looked open enough for him to finish. Unfortunately he failed to, but still got the 2 points on each of his free throws. Down 64-65, the Aztecs managed yet another stop. This brings us back to how the article began. Thames took on multiple defenders, leaving Polee open for the 3. SDSU did not have to go for the 3, as they were only down 1, but it pretty much sealed the victory.

J.J. O’Brien had one of his best games in a while even though his stat line only read 9 points and 6 rebounds. Watching the game, he looked great. He had a ton of spin moves and was finishing convincingly. O’Brien took advantage of being defended by smaller guards, going 4-6 from the field. Steve Fisher really did not ask much of O’Brien offensively, which is what explains only 9 points. He was efficient though, and that is what matters.

Winston Shepard had a pretty poor game. He looked like his sloppy self as he just could not finish. Like I have said before, the guy just tries to look too pretty. He has plenty of potential as we all know. He averages 13+ points and 5+ rebounds per game, and is definitely a big part of our success. Shepard is still growing as a player and is learning to contain his own wildness. He did have a few pretty mid-range jumpers, which is what he seems to excel at this season. Winston had 2 rebounds and 6 points on 2/9 shooting — which was a team worst, 22%.

This Aztecs team’s biggest weakness is their offense, and more specifically finishing at the rim. They really lack a 3 point shooter other than Thames. With that said, this was the kind of gritty win that the Aztecs need to have on their resume if they want to be successful in the NCAA Tournament. SDSU just needs to keep winning and the respect will keep coming.

SDSU stays #5.. Big Game Wednesday @ Boise St.

The Aztecs keep winning and they’re national stance keeps strengthening.

This past weekend 5 top-10 teams lost, including #1 Arizona. Despite all these losses, SDSU kept its position at #5. SDSU’s only loss is to Arizona who dropped to #2 as Syracuse advanced to #1 after escaping #11 Duke in an overtime thriller.

The Aztecs only played one game last week. Steve Fisher was still able to gain his 300th win as the Aztec’s head coach.

SDSU played Colorado St at home who they beat pretty convincingly 65-56. Steve Fisher’s team was up by double digits primarily the entire game entering halftime with a 12 point lead. Only until the last few minutes did Colorado St. break the lead to single-digits when they went on a run.

The stellar play of senior guard Xavier Thames allowed the Aztecs to prevail. Thames scored 24 points improving his per game average to 18 points. Winston Shepard also added 17 points and 6 rebounds. Xavier Thames was also impressive on the boards with 7.

This rebound production out of Shepard and Thames was necessary with star forward Josh Davis out with a knee injury. Dwayne Polee also sat out with a sickness. Josh Davis’ production is a huge part of why SDSU is the #5 ranked team in the country. He currently averages 11.6 rebounds per game, which ranks 3rd in the entire country. SDSU got production out of J.J. O’Brien to make up for Davis.  O’Brien finished with 10 rebounds and only 1 point. J.J. is still recovering from an injured hand and Fisher has not relied on his offense game during the bulk of the season.

It is still unknown if Josh Davis will play tonight against Boise State. They will need him. Saturday night verse Colorado St. was only the second time all season (Arizona) that SDSU did not out-rebound it’s opponent. They tied, going 40-40. Dwayne Polee should play in Boise, so that may help out a bit. SDSU could use Davis’ production verse a pesky Boise St. offense.

Xavier Thames also managed to go 12-for-12 from the free throw line. The rest of the Aztecs went a combined 11-22 from the line. If SDSU wants to seriously compete in the NCAA Tournament, they will need to improve their free throw percentage. They have a ton of physical athletic players who draw fouls as they drive to the basket. They need to take advantage of their opportunities as they will get fouled a lot in tournament play. Xavier has been solid all season and currently ranks #7 on the Player of the Year Award watch-list.

Boise St. has played SDSU extremely close in recent years. They have an outstanding outside game with great 3-point shooters. This game will come down to rebounds and how the Aztec defense plays in Idaho.

From this point on the rest of the season, all Mountain West Conference teams will be playing the Aztecs very tough. At #5, it will essentially be every team in the conference’s biggest game of the season. It will be the ‘Super Bowl’ for every team, if you will. SDSU needs to take notice of this and not let their feet off the pedal. They need to keep playing dominant defense and keep up that #1 ranking in opponent FG%. New Mexico is really the only other seemingly guaranteed team to make the NCAA tournament. There are a couple bubble teams in our conference, including Boise St., who could make the tournament with a win against an excellent #5 SDSU Aztec team.

Lets play some defense, finish around the basket, at make some free throws and we will win.

San Diego State Basketball #5

National recognition and respect is being earned by the San Diego State Men’s Basketball team.

The Aztecs now sit at 18-1, with 17 straight wins and a 7-0 conference record. We have already talked about their numbers; they have statistically one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Associated Press and Coaches Poll keep bumping up the Aztec’s ranking as the season goes on and the wins continue.

That is what Steve Fisher said early on in the season. He knew he had a good team. Back then, when SDSU was not ranked, Steve Fisher seemed worry free. In an interview back in November, Fisher stated his team just needs to keep focused one game at a time and — most importantly — keep winning.

Winning is what the Aztecs have seemed to do. Although playing in some close games, they still have pulled through and found ways to win. What is even more impressive, as most SDSU fans know, their only loss has come to the Number #1 Ranked Arizona Wildcats, who are undefeated.

The Aztecs may stay in the Top 10 the rest of the season. The Mountain West Conference is much weaker this season, so the games here down the stretch are not as enticing to watch. They will be challenged by Boise St. in the upcoming weeks as well as New Mexico twice in the end of the year. As I mentioned in a previous article, SDSU is in position to possibly close out the regular season undefeated, or potentially with only a couple losses.

What is also good for SDSU’s ranking is the teams they have beat. Obviously, we know they have beat 3 ranked teams. Creighton is creeping back in the top 25, now ranked 20. They also beat Villanova last week who was ranked #4 at the time and had a dominant game out of star senior Doug McDermott (39 pts) last night. Kansas just seems to keep winning. They have beat multiple ranked teams since losing to the Aztecs and their top rated defense a few weeks back.

It is an exciting time to be an SDSU Basketball fan. The mindset of this program over the last few years has now come to the expectation to make the tournament. It is now about what we are going to do in the tournament. Steve Fisher and the Aztecs need to keep focused and continue to get better every game. They need to start finishing at the basket better and continuing to dominate on defense. getting a 1-2-3 ranking in our NCAA Regional Bracket would be a huge feat and put us in position to have a smooth run to the Sweet 16, or maybe more.

Rising Star: San Diego State Forward Winston Shepard

Winston Shepard has been a beast this year for SDSU and will only continue to develop his raw offensive talent.

Poll: SDSU’s 2014 Postseason Capabilities

San Diego State has not taken a year off after losing Jamaal Franklin to the NBA and 4-year starter Chase Tapley. Many thought SDSU was going to take a year off after losing Kawhi Leonard back in 2011, but Steve Fisher just seems to keep plugging along.

Some would argue that SDSU was better in the 2011-12 season than the 2012-13 season (both Jamaal and Chase’s stats were better in 2011-12 season), but they were able to achieve more in March Madness. The Aztecs were a #15 FGCU victory away from a Sweet 16 berth last season before the Cinderella story continued. SDSU was tied at half time but fell apart defensively in the second half.

What does 2014 bring? San Diego State is arguably much better than last year and maybe just up to par with the 2010-11 Sweet 16 team. San Diego State has a ton of players with an excellent bench this year. They are extremely athletic and play excellent defense. Really, the only thing that will limit them is their offensive game. Lacking at times, SDSU has it’s scorers. J.J. O’Brien was a big part of the offense until he injured his hand early in the season. He is playing, but still recovering. By the time March Madness rolls around, J.J. should be close to 100%.

So how good can SDSU be in 2014? How far can they go? This question will be even more interesting next year with the additions of some outstanding recruits.

SDSU Wins Challenging Road Victory in OT at Utah St.

Although stressing out the fans, SDSU pulled through and prevailed in a tough road victory at Utah St.

Utah State had a fully packed house to host #7 SDSU, and I was honestly impressed with their fans. The Mountain West Conference has plenty of strong home field advantages and Utah State is apart of that. Their fans did an unclasp, yet San Diego-esque taunt of the opposing team when they sung the Aztecs “I Believe” chant. We believe a little more, Utah State.

It was a gritty and tough win, but SDSU prevailed. Good teams seem to win close road games.

The Aztecs were leading by 4 at half time, 28-24, but got beat 33-29 in the second half to force overtime. The game was close the entire second half, and for a period of time late in the second half, the Aggies held onto a 4 point lead. For some reason when I was watching this, it still seemed as though the game was in SDSUs hands. Although not in control, it seemed still controllable.

SDSU pulled ahead in the final minutes to take a 57-54. Xavier Thames missed a late free throw that would have put the game away for good. Spencer Butterfield, on the Aggies, hit a phenomenal three point shot with 2.5 seconds left in the game over two defenders. It was honestly a terrific shot and you have to give all the credit to the kid. Josh Davis and J.J. O’Brien were in his face playing smothering defense and yet he somehow was able to drain the 3.

The Aztecs did not panic. They went on to outscore Utah St. 17-12 in the extra period. Xavier Thames had 10 points in overtime.

For the game, Xavier Thames beasted and was ultra-clutch. He scored 31 points, setting a new career high. Thames really had a complete game as he also managed to haul in 3 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block. He shot 3-6 from 3-pt (10-21 total), including a dagger that seemed to put the game away in overtime. SDSU led 61-60, and Thames drained an extremely deep three that put the Aztecs up 4.

After that, Utah State was pretty much forced to foul. Thames also contributed 8-10 from the Free Throw line, with a handful coming in overtime. This seems to be how the season has gone though. When SDSU has a close lead late, they hold on with the almost-automatic free throw shooting from Thames.

X-FACTor: SDSU Turnover Margin +11

The win was not pretty by any means, but it is a win. Road victories in conference play are hard to come by, so SDSU should not feel disheartened by ‘barely’ beating the Aggies. This win shows America that SDSU will keep fighting to get a win and will excel with the play of Xavier Thames and their swarming defense.

The Numbers Don’t Lie – San Diego State Defense

Only a few months ago, San Diego State Aztecs were unranked and I was demanding respect as fan. Did the Associated Press, Coaches, and even the writers hear my calls? San Diego State University now ranks #7 in the entire country.

Steve Fisher and the Aztecs have earned this national ranking. It was not just because we demanded respect, but we showed the country we could keep winning. Currently the Aztecs are 17-1, with their only loss coming to the #1 Ranked Arizona Wildcats. The Mountain West conference is no where near as strong as it was last year (1st in RPI in 2012-13 to 10th in RPI 2013-14), and SDSU really only has Boise St. as a challenger. The Aztecs could run the table or come out with only a couple losses in conference play.

San Diego State’s defense is what makes it a dominant force. Steve Fisher has instilled stellar defensive play in his players over his tenure as the Aztec’s head coach.

Lets go by the numbers:

It all starts with rebounds. San Diego State ranks 13th in the country for rebounds per game. In college basketball rebounds can be the direct difference in a game. The Aztecs feature Josh Davis at center who boasts 11.6 rebounds per game which is ranked 3rd in the entire country. SDSU also ranks within the top 25 for offensive rebounds per game which is primarily due to the play of Josh Davis. San Diego St. is a team that lives and dies off of the defensive play, and needs easy points.

Let’s take a look at a little more defensive stats. Last week San Diego State led the country in Opponent FG%. After the last week of play, SDSU has dropped but still ranks #3 in the country with a 37.1% from the field. Last week SDSU also ranked in the top 5 for Opponent 3-point FG%, but now have taken a drastic drop to #20. Still an excellent ranking which justified their defensive prowess.

Another stat that has dropped over the last week, but is still excellent, is Opponent’s Points Per Game. SDSU was top-3 but now sits at #5 with an Opponent PPG at 57.6. They get after the ball and shut teams down. Obviously, Opponent FG% and PPG are correlated.

One of the most revealing stats is Team Defensive Efficiency. This stat is calculated by using the formula [field goals attempted – offensive rebounds + turnovers + (0.4 x free throws attempted) = total number of possessions for the season to calculate total team possessions]. This stat pretty much simplifies the combination of statistics that represent a teams defensive efficiency and production. SDSU currently ranks #3 in the country. Aztecs are actually ranked #1 in the country at home in this statistic which is easy to believe at Viejas Arena.

SDSU also features Skylar Spencer at the Power Forward position. Spencer is a blocking animal. He averages 2.53 blocks per game, which is tied for 39th in the country. Last year, he set a Mountain West Conference freshman record for blocks in a season. His talents were highlighted in the game at Allen Fieldhouse verse Kansas where Spencer had 6 blocks. He is still only a sophomore and has a ton of room for growth over the next 2 years.

Many of the east coast bias still does not give SDSU enough respect or credit. Kansas fans swear that their loss to SDSU was a fluke. They swear it was the worst game of the season for them. No fluke, Kansas fans. It was because SDSU is an elite defense. It is because they attack the rim, get after the ball, and play aggressive team defense.

San Diego St. Gaining Some Respect… #13

Finally, after a win against #16 Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, the Aztecs move up in the rankings. SDSU moves up 8 spots to #13 and Kansas only moves down 2 spots to #18.

The Kansas win was huge for San Diego State. It will also play a huge role in their NCAA Tournament resume.

The Aztecs now have wins verse three ranked teams in four tries. Their only loss against a ranked team is the now #1 ranked Arizona Wildcats. SDSU improves to 13-1 after defeating Boise St. last night at Viejas Arena.

There really is not many teams in the Mountain West Conference that can show the Aztecs much fight this season. In past seasons UNLV, Colorado St., New Mexico, Boise St., and even Wyoming were all formidable opponents. This year many of those teams’ players either graduated or went to the NBA. The Aztecs can easily see themselves with an above 25 win season this year.

The key is to keep their momentum going. They need to keep up their stout defense. The Aztecs are only getting better as they are playing together. They have a lot of young players as many of their seniors graduated last year. This core may be still primarily in tact, with the exception of Thames and Davis, next year with the highly ranked recruiting class coming in.

This is a program with its eyes on the NCAA Tournament though. Get us there and thats when the season begins. Four straight tournament opponents is pretty successful, but State wants to take that next step. The Aztecs have the defensive prowess, and the talent, to be a Sweet 16 type team. Who knows, Final Four?